Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d9b7ee6da0cdbe502c6f61d910bf73bba32b52297c2ae63554fe41029d2b9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Nottingham Forest FC, Malmö FF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Malmö FF | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nottingham Forest FC | 34c | 3,569$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.21 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Nottingham Forest FC | 33c | 1,606$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.02 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Nottingham Forest FC | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Malmö FF | 68c | 307.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Malmö FF | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nottingham Forest FC | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Nottingham Forest FC | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Malmö FF | 73c | 134.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Nottingham Forest FC | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 101.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Malmö FF | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Malmö FF | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Malmö FF | 66c | 70.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nottingham Forest FC | 34c | 38.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Nottingham Forest FC | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Malmö FF | 67c | 25.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.