Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4010dc32a4cc21651255e9898d45ec5b56a2baff014914cdb024a667de9a648a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Under | 53c | 2,369$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 42c | 1,383$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.44 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,253$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 689.47$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.52 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 46c | 577.78$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 80c | 500.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 49c | 356.04$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Under | 42c | 349.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 175.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 60c | 167.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 39c | 161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 150.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…3348backed Over | 59c | 132.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 59c | 110.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…5492backed Over | 59c | 80.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 39c | 73.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…c66cbacked Over | 58c | 68.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked Over | 56c | 67.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 70cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…fc05backed Over | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…3c19backed Over | 55c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…fbe0backed Over | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.