Olympics · resolved market
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc182c20e242a2bbd53100cf1e6177b8d047c32bc0d8e19bfd22238f81af4dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 48c | 442.31$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95e…ae93backed No | 52c | 442.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 230.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 68c | 146.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 30c | 145.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 41c | 137.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 45c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 62c | 128.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 46c | 109.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…ce76backed No | 54c | 68.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 47.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…0889backed Yes | 66c | 37.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6f4ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…e757backed Yes | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Courtney Sarault (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.