Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fddf1525bf3815a230e9f344c95da5789c88526b28925cef57ef706fe90464a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 68c | 295.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 34c | 243.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 229.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 211.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 162.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…2c36backed Yes | 19c | 140.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…3fc4backed Yes | 12c | 137.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 31c | 132.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 103.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 34c | 99.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 43c | 88.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 82.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 35c | 78.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 77.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 77c | 75.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…fc2dbacked Yes | 19c | 66.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 67c | 51.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 38.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 36c | 28.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 63c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 64c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 73c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 64c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 0°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.