Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ded05c593d77547eb19f4ac50cdaa6fcf03d7770a81ed6687b675236fdc9e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 402.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 222.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 42c | 157.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 156.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 66c | 115.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 108.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 54c | 101.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 98.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 90.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 76.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 32c | 66.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 66c | 64.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 59c | 62.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 38c | 61.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 27c | 61.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 43.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 33c | 42.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 54c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 58c | 36.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 49c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed No | 75c | 27.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 58c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 0°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.