Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201455a586b1bfe13fdac62e51af098862d97de6f9827a96a639691ebaf6cbaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 16c | 7,424$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.32 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 6,183$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.08 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 80c | 6,061$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 73c | 6,049$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.14 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 3,848$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.44 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,692$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.79 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 75c | 1,250$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 1,212$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.23 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 1,202$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 1,097$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.63 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 27c | 1,067$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 648.89$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 26c | 585.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 491.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 437.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 97.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 19c | 90.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…2af5backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 73c | 64.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 73c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 74c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.