Tennis · resolved market
Mexican Open, Qualification: Bernard Tomic vs Nicolas Mejia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202239fa06832846ec3ebfaf0af85596422984357f1ce4196fd858cac0a98d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mejiaof Tomic, Mejia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Mejia | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Tomic | 56c | 1,119$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.82 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mejia | 74c | 741.46$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.36 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Tomic | 56c | 572.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.43 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Tomic | 37c | 543.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Tomic | 55c | 418$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tomic | 12c | 353.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Tomic | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Tomic | 35c | 350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Tomic | 26c | 337.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Mejia | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tomic | 11c | 328.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Tomic | 21c | 323$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mejia | 67c | 237.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Tomic | 57c | 235.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tomic | 33c | 208.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Mejia | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Tomic | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Mejia | 44c | 189$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Tomic | 38c | 129.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tomic | 29c | 122.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2cc1backed Mejia | 60c | 116.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Mejia | 43c | 110.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Mejia | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…e664backed Tomic | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Mejia | 43c | 97.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Tomic | 25c | 86.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Tomic | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tomic | 33c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Mejia | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Mejia | 43c | 44.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Tomic | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mejia | 55c | 41.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mejia | 43c | 29.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Tomic | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.