South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2037aaa282e593852d90fe1d255cc1c825d8f2e14d091c8c61fec820459037b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 5,849$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 4,113$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.38 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01c…7f6cbacked No | 70c | 1,387$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 69c | 889.73$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 635.11$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.47 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 573.06$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 11c | 539.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 21c | 465.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 461.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Yes | 32c | 372.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 68c | 361.23$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 30c | 319.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked No | 70c | 281.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 280.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Yes | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 259.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 73c | 217.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 193.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked No | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…68ecbacked Yes | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked No | 80c | 124.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked No | 71c | 114.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 68c | 105.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 12c | 102.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed No | 68c | 100.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked No | 68c | 93.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Yes | 33c | 86.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 32c | 83.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 70c | 76.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4587backed Yes | 30c | 76.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 70c | 70.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 65.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Yes | 27c | 50.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 33c | 48.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 34c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 34c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked No | 67c | 36.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 36c | 34.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed No | 71c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-01?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.