Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Colorado State Rams vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205136bd9ac1f4a29d0a9dbb1dead30b30b97b2969b1a5a875a4956a8857f3b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego State Aztecsof Colorado State Rams, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado State Rams | 22c | 18,970$4,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,128.49 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 78c | 13,220$10,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Colorado State Rams | 1c | 8,861$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 78c | 4,654$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.02 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colorado State Rams | 3c | 4,076$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado State Rams | 8c | 3,024$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Colorado State Rams | 5c | 1,769$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Colorado State Rams | 5c | 1,250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Colorado State Rams | 22c | 632.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Colorado State Rams | 8c | 605.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Colorado State Rams | 8c | 568$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Colorado State Rams | 19c | 500.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Colorado State Rams | 15c | 483.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Colorado State Rams | 6c | 403.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…1ae2backed Colorado State Rams | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 79c | 173.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Colorado State Rams | 21c | 168.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Colorado State Rams | 13c | 138.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Colorado State Rams | 11c | 125.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Colorado State Rams | 20c | 100.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Colorado State Rams | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed San Diego State Aztecs | 78c | 74.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Colorado State Rams | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Colorado State Rams | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 252 | 46.4%117 W · 135 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Diego State Aztecs | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed San Diego State Aztecs | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado State Rams vs. San Diego State Aztecsthis page
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-8.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.