Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20772d34adf429e5e5d9d711cce760974687b3a149e6fe6a44b7c601202c364e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Spirit Academy, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe15…80b5backed Inner Circle | 67c | 6,000$4,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 70c | 2,308$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.87 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Spirit Academy | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Spirit Academy | 6c | 1,800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Spirit Academy | 6c | 1,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Spirit Academy | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Spirit Academy | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Spirit Academy | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…a748backed Spirit Academy | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…59ffbacked Spirit Academy | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 499.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…dc5abacked Spirit Academy | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 25cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Inner Circle | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Inner Circle | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…c284backed Inner Circle | 67c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Inner Circle | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group BInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.