TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circleof Spirit Academy, Inner Circle
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe15…80b5backed Inner Circle67c6,000$4,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.61181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy70c2,308$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.8766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Spirit Academy2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Spirit Academy6c1,800$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2480…c148backed Spirit Academy6c1,500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Spirit Academy24c700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick28cpaid+97.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4de1…22a0backed Spirit Academy2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked Spirit Academy2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154d…a748backed Spirit Academy2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c28…59ffbacked Spirit Academy2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Spirit Academy37c499.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0267…dc5abacked Spirit Academy20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801070%7 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.45per pick25cpaid+163.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Inner Circle63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.59440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Inner Circle63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.736434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Inner Circle63c59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8314453.5%77 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe577…c284backed Inner Circle67c36.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Inner Circle63c20.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.637463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Inner Circle50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1025255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.