Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209b052b2af5440d134c818b14612f96a60e5d934ee9066e224c92f0b86f37e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,445 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 3,521$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.49 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 765.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 755.24$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 7c | 748$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 28c | 714.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 77c | 618.08$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 556.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 72c | 500.14$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 488$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 462.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 23c | 450.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 77c | 430.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 16c | 288$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 242.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 77c | 204.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 187.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 183.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 142.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…0624backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 119.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed Yes | 20c | 107.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 26c | 92.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 91.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 76c | 90.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…8644backed Yes | 23c | 87.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…0c01backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…b0cdbacked No | 78c | 60.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 23c | 57.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 56.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 23c | 55.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Yes | 22c | 54.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 51.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 50.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…0477backed No | 79c | 44.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 77c | 21.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 78c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.