CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Last Bullet (BO3) - MaceMedia VOID Cup Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a51a8f35d7a70c849612e7e6f373f73f3bcf2f340739d2dbf0a8f3cd4ebeb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rare Atomof Rare Atom, Last Bullet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,654 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eee…a528backed Last Bullet | 29c | 643$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…f5dfbacked Last Bullet | 36c | 547$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8fd8backed Rare Atom | 71c | 504$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…695dbacked Rare Atom | 64c | 419$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…556dbacked Last Bullet | 25c | 312$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…4e6fbacked Last Bullet | 36c | 289$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…4a68backed Last Bullet | 37c | 268$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…2d8cbacked Rare Atom | 63c | 268$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…9c83backed Last Bullet | 29c | 236$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…b9c6backed Rare Atom | 75c | 211$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f32…b46cbacked Rare Atom | 64c | 169$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Last Bullet | 12c | 162.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…0d5fbacked Last Bullet | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…5482backed Rare Atom | 71c | 154$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…75f5backed Rare Atom | 71c | 139$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…8314backed Rare Atom | 64c | 128$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2073…3af0backed Rare Atom | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…a832backed Rare Atom | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…a098backed Rare Atom | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc025…a11abacked Rare Atom | 71c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Last Bullet | 13c | 78.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…d717backed Last Bullet | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…9acebacked Rare Atom | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…aa15backed Last Bullet | 32c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Rare Atom | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Rare Atom | 69c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Rare Atom | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Last Bullet (BO3) - MaceMedia VOID Cup Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Last Bullet - Map 2 WinnerRare Atom won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.