MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20de4e9248b2c495eb5be497da9af863c91b0e8397a1830f64ec1320a07d11b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Los Angeles Angels, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 2,039$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 52c | 1,854$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 978.12$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 256$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 62c | 236$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 67c | 145.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Athletics | 79c | 125.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 116.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 9c | 116.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 81.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 64c | 80.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Angels | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Athletics | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 49.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 64c | 42.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Athletics | 55c | 38.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 71c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.