MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36fd2d3f560caa2d43bdeb8951d44a92137d075ee4e29f8b3a57b2048a5e2625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 29,935$14,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,967.54 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 25,313$12,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,696.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 51c | 24,450$12,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,464 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 17,523$8,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,936.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 10,724$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 7,538$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,769 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 79c | 4,700$3,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,713 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 21c | 2,612$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.62 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,200$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 1,107$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 958.42$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 708.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 602.68$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 79c | 508.85$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 481.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 472.25$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 469.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.95 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 50c | 412$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 21c | 410$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 50c | 300.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 50c | 298.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 68c | 298.15$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 246$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 49c | 240.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 188.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 180$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 72c | 151.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 23c | 149.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 37c | 140.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 119.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 110.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 40c | 104.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 21c | 99.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 32c | 85.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 80.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 37c | 80.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 50c | 61.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 53c | 49.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 50c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Over | 29c | 39.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Over | 51c | 39.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 47c | 35.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 51c | 27.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 54c | 25.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…c19fbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 61c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Over | 69c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…6f23backed Over | 73c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.