MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213404f4866a0d1cb0539c0f7da3b7cb57f6bcfbd9e86681163505696ad14982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Orioles, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0317…6289backed Orioles | 44c | 7,681$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tigers | 64c | 4,995$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.48 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Tigers | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Tigers | 72c | 2,995$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.08 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 25c | 2,036$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Tigers | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 46c | 1,538$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.48 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tigers | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Tigers | 71c | 538.91$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tigers | 55c | 530.82$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Tigers | 67c | 341$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tigers | 63c | 276.03$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 44c | 251.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Tigers | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Orioles | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tigers | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Orioles | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Tigers | 56c | 29.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…c94fbacked Tigers | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.