South American Leagues · resolved market
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21404a09e0d720a9cb71040ddde025d49ca327df173335b1a5867185fca21e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 923.22$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 810.53$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.54 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 63c | 182.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 60c | 155$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 37c | 132.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 62c | 125.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 57c | 82.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 75.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 41c | 72.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 58.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 38c | 41.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 72c | 32.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Over | 60c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5this page
- Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cusco FC (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)Cusco FC won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-2.5)Cusco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.