Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sorana Cirstea
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2140a44ae6abbdfb3f9b267f5f49adf4f091bf864b20c5e399ca7596623e2bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Fernandez, Cirstea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cirstea | 49c | 12,267$6,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,043.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fernandez | 50c | 8,023$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.86 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Fernandez | 57c | 7,632$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.63 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Cirstea | 42c | 7,230$3,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.06 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fernandez | 59c | 3,075$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.87 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Fernandez | 61c | 2,623$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.03 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cirstea | 53c | 2,555$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.71 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fernandez | 56c | 1,942$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.99 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cirstea | 39c | 1,291$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.64 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cirstea | 39c | 897$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Fernandez | 57c | 767.13$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cirstea | 36c | 574.04$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Fernandez | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cirstea | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Cirstea | 21c | 399.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cirstea | 42c | 390.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Fernandez | 60c | 385.5$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Cirstea | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cirstea | 39c | 196.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Fernandez | 49c | 175.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cirstea | 39c | 175.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cirstea | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandez | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Fernandez | 75c | 159.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Cirstea | 51c | 155$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Cirstea | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Fernandez | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Fernandez | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Fernandez | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cirstea | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Cirstea | 72c | 16.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.