Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21601a8212fb6e96ce3e2f007b4d3b0d8115341b80abbeb84b781fbac8baba84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 39c | 1,291$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.49 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 67c | 278.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 54c | 275.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 122.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 65c | 113.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 110.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 107.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 86.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…0f58backed Yes | 67c | 84.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 74c | 65.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 24c | 61.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 19c | 59.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 66c | 54.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 21c | 51.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 31c | 51.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 70c | 44.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 79c | 42.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…f7a9backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 43c | 39.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 36.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 32.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 75c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 31.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…4f54backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…c241backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 76c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.