Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21733a8b63266c7517a68f71261ab08eda511e271888e7390c4c6ad06d294b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 57c | 21,685$12,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,277.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 43c | 11,579$4,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,975.73 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 43c | 3,744$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 3,239$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.2 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 44c | 2,152$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.81 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 56c | 1,950$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 1,641$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.69 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 44c | 1,511$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…c0c6backed Under | 44c | 1,348$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 42c | 1,071$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked Under | 54c | 949.92$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 57c | 879.16$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 791.32$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.2 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Over | 55c | 545.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 417$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.21 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 5c | 341.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…6232backed Over | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 42c | 204.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 56c | 187$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 43c | 129.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…c5bfbacked Under | 34c | 53.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…28b4backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 42.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 44c | 37.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…4bb1backed Under | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…abe9backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…9e7cbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…1b90backed Over | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 26.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6c14backed Over | 54c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 66c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…efc5backed Over | 67c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 80c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.