Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509a6861e765ba01aa8d88d486eeef3d13235006bd2a42dd13042fcf7386e8ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perth Glory FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Perth Glory FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Perth Glory FC | 70c | 38,925$27,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,486.81 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Melbourne Victory FC | 32c | 28,763$9,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,148.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Perth Glory FC | 72c | 27,963$20,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,809.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 26,194$7,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,334.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Perth Glory FC | 68c | 8,020$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.38 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 5,962$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.75 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 5,151$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 4,597$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.02 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Melbourne Victory FC | 31c | 2,400$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 1,348$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.91 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Perth Glory FC | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 32c | 1,167$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.72 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 447.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…816abacked Melbourne Victory FC | 29c | 339.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Melbourne Victory FC | 7c | 265$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Perth Glory FC | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 184$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…bd70backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 19c | 95.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 94.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 91.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 68.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Melbourne Victory FC | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 53.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 43.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…efc5backed Melbourne Victory FC | 50c | 33.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Perth Glory FC | 70c | 33.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Perth Glory FC | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Perth Glory FC | 66c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…8fccbacked Perth Glory FC | 74c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Perth Glory FC | 74c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Perth Glory FC | 73c | 14.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.