Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs Wu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x218c71651b780c0e37040793cb2f4c5a1189137a6d7b5e93c84b1744bc009b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boltof Bolt, Wu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wu | 2c | 8,693$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Wu | 1c | 1,132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wu | 45c | 1,005$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.37 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bolt | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.98 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…6f45backed Bolt | 46c | 844.92$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wu | 72c | 798.95$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.24 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wu | 72c | 329.26$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Bolt | 34c | 294.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +12.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Bolt | 50c | 121.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Bolt | 34c | 93.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Wu | 77c | 71.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Bolt | 35c | 48.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Wu | 72c | 43.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 272 | 40.4%110 W · 162 L | -25.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wu | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Bolt | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Wu | 73c | 27.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Wu | 72c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 263 | 49%129 W · 134 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Wu | 72c | 17.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 435 | 58.6%255 W · 180 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs Wuthis page
- Alex Bolt vs. Yibing Wu: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Bolt vs. Wu: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Bolt vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Bolt vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Wu (-1.5) vs Bolt (+1.5)Bolt won
- US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Bolt vs Yibing WuAlex Bolt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.