Tennis · resolved market
Mexico City: Marc Polmans vs Rodrigo Alujas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x218f6112ca739cf475ca7541a42e845ed5af1d658110256b2ffa7301b23230e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marc Polmansof Marc Polmans, Rodrigo Alujas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rodrigo Alujas | 2c | 2,320$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 22c | 1,706$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rodrigo Alujas | 8c | 1,626$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rodrigo Alujas | 4c | 1,259$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Marc Polmans | 79c | 1,234$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.19 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Rodrigo Alujas | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Marc Polmans | 74c | 984.4$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.94 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Marc Polmans | 79c | 828.43$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Rodrigo Alujas | 17c | 688.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 641.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Rodrigo Alujas | 16c | 315$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rodrigo Alujas | 9c | 291.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…34d0backed Rodrigo Alujas | 18c | 264.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Rodrigo Alujas | 18c | 248.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 8c | 207.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Rodrigo Alujas | 20c | 201.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 292 | 30.5%89 W · 203 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Rodrigo Alujas | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Rodrigo Alujas | 7c | 170.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…2779backed Rodrigo Alujas | 8c | 155.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Marc Polmans | 78c | 130.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Rodrigo Alujas | 17c | 125.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 110.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Rodrigo Alujas | 13c | 103.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Rodrigo Alujas | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Marc Polmans | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 528 | 54.9%290 W · 238 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Marc Polmans | 74c | 93.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…4766backed Marc Polmans | 74c | 44.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Marc Polmans | 74c | 27.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.