Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvaros beat Viktoria Plzen?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e289f17bbdb935d9e82cc9b7cdff0ec654b113c9d4be1a115906da782ca739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 3c | 2,351$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 487.42$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.23 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 34c | 436.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.91 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 66c | 124.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed No | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…9d83backed No | 31c | 63.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 35c | 61.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…3ab1backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 36c | 56.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…48eabacked Yes | 69c | 56.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…5f00backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…b01bbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…0b96backed Yes | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…cfdcbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…7895backed Yes | 42c | 40.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…84a1backed No | 60c | 39.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…05bfbacked Yes | 40c | 39.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…df89backed No | 57c | 39.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc2…6cadbacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f4…c0e3backed Yes | 35c | 37.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d4…7b62backed Yes | 41c | 37.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…07a0backed No | 59c | 37.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 64c | 37.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…9596backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…daf8backed No | 57c | 32.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…1a73backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…f5cfbacked Yes | 41c | 27.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…7ebebacked No | 60c | 27.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…0aa3backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…071bbacked Yes | 43c | 26.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…61debacked Yes | 43c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aca…c55cbacked No | 65c | 25.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…ec31backed Yes | 42c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 59c | 24.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…6962backed No | 57c | 24.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…e837backed No | 57c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…c956backed No | 65c | 21.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…d428backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…c8bfbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…63aabacked No | 58c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…ab7dbacked No | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa8…9a9ebacked Yes | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…f59fbacked No | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…505ebacked No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvaros beat Viktoria Plzen?this page
- Will Viktoria Plzen beat Ferencvaros?No won
- Will the match between Ferencvaros and Viktoria Plzen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.