Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22290d3a2eab47dd3221cf548a7d61926795880f7d704d2025feb536e4875d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 78c | 711.98$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 18c | 407.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 15c | 360.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 299.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 26c | 254.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 227.19$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…e6d7backed No | 73c | 188.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 175.19$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 162.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 128.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 19c | 123.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 92.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 84.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 77c | 63.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…35dcbacked Yes | 25c | 62.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 25c | 56.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 69c | 49.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 77c | 46.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 40.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 78c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 75c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-22?Yes won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.