Tennis · resolved market
ITF W35 Krakow Women: Karolina Mrazikova vs Sofia Shapatava
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x227271498e7e85d0a423bfe4c9a48b1a96e923ce0bb9dd0468f7d4ffb6cd9fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sofia Shapatavaof Karolina Mrazikova, Sofia Shapatava
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Sofia Shapatava | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.73 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sofia Shapatava | 32c | 1,577$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.67 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Karolina Mrazikova | 59c | 1,541$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.52 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…4089backed Karolina Mrazikova | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Karolina Mrazikova | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Karolina Mrazikova | 57c | 332$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.89 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Karolina Mrazikova | 56c | 307.14$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Sofia Shapatava | 48c | 289.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Sofia Shapatava | 36c | 273.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Sofia Shapatava | 43c | 259.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Karolina Mrazikova | 60c | 254.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Karolina Mrazikova | 64c | 234.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sofia Shapatava | 43c | 216.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Karolina Mrazikova | 60c | 201.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Karolina Mrazikova | 40c | 86.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Sofia Shapatava | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 329 | 37.1%122 W · 207 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Karolina Mrazikova | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Sofia Shapatava | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Sofia Shapatava | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Karolina Mrazikova | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.