World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a4e4bae682d6bbd578609da93bc420f0b384ba64fbb7e6f83f61b30d2179e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 8,600$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.36 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 25c | 5,993$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.71 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 75c | 5,179$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.75 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Yes | 11c | 3,064$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 7c | 2,255$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,219$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 19c | 1,068$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…a19bbacked Yes | 8c | 952.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…8534backed Yes | 6c | 950.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 75c | 947.2$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e0d3backed Yes | 9c | 687.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 13c | 633.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…2ae8backed Yes | 7c | 494.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 13c | 441.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…6edabacked Yes | 7c | 312.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…33bcbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2c…3544backed Yes | 14c | 249.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…184dbacked Yes | 21c | 228.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 13c | 201.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…f2d3backed Yes | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 10c | 127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 24c | 102.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…2cb6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 98.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…0f62backed Yes | 23c | 93.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 24c | 70.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 60c | 55.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 40c | 55.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…0f1dbacked Yes | 26c | 42.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.