World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2cbeede0d219d93c280eea0f0c4f642bda29a89b0c14d518149db2dad9e1589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 11c | 10,789$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.42 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 11c | 8,937$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.8 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 25c | 5,240$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.93 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 8c | 1,020$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…8a8abacked No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed Yes | 76c | 800$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e0d3backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 28c | 400$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 14c | 369$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…488fbacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1aabbacked No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 280$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 9c | 213.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e99…784abacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 73c | 102.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 74c | 70.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…2053backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 25c | 48.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the Yukon seat in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.