Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b70c37879edd25487f4ff061837179b2774829cbbbf2ed78bb318db24a3b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tommy Paulof Alexandre Muller, Tommy Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Alexandre Muller | 4c | 14,400$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Alexandre Muller | 1c | 7,826$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Alexandre Muller | 1c | 6,458$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Alexandre Muller | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…4199backed Alexandre Muller | 6c | 3,333$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Alexandre Muller | 6c | 3,330$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…675fbacked Alexandre Muller | 7c | 3,156$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.97 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Alexandre Muller | 3c | 2,239$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…55edbacked Alexandre Muller | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Alexandre Muller | 7c | 1,633$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Alexandre Muller | 2c | 1,552$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…d62fbacked Alexandre Muller | 6c | 650$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Alexandre Muller | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…867abacked Alexandre Muller | 6c | 528.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Alexandre Muller | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Alexandre Muller | 5c | 421$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Alexandre Muller | 6c | 355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Alexandre Muller | 5c | 316.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Alexandre Muller | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Alexandre Muller | 6c | 190.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paulthis page
- Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Muller (+2.5)Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.