World Politics · resolved market
Will Mark Carney lose his seat?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22e2ddb28c30d26cf17bd8f30661532215bf56c10d1eb43132171fc18e122840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,559,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,825,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,559,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5c…ecf0backed Yes | 6c | 596,076$36,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,955.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…78f4backed Yes | 6c | 141,797$8,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,605.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…23dfbacked Yes | 7c | 90,450$6,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,018.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…7067backed Yes | 8c | 77,356$5,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,888 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 6c | 71,153$4,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,216.39 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…2e4dbacked Yes | 7c | 62,981$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…3bf6backed Yes | 5c | 55,352$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 50,455$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.2 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 5c | 48,524$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…79ffbacked Yes | 2c | 48,281$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…203cbacked Yes | 5c | 46,323$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…2de2backed Yes | 4c | 42,833$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…3e92backed Yes | 4c | 30,704$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…b068backed Yes | 7c | 29,909$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 8c | 29,885$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…16e1backed Yes | 8c | 28,257$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b859backed Yes | 6c | 28,141$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…3470backed Yes | 8c | 26,519$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…460bbacked Yes | 6c | 25,743$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…f6a4backed Yes | 7c | 24,289$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fb…2c13backed Yes | 6c | 23,495$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a652backed Yes | 7c | 20,947$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes | 6c | 20,258$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…d165backed Yes | 7c | 19,971$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…3ea1backed Yes | 6c | 17,962$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…4982backed Yes | 6c | 17,755$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…401fbacked Yes | 6c | 17,696$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 7c | 16,618$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 5c | 15,121$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…910dbacked Yes | 5c | 14,762$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…b367backed Yes | 4c | 14,636$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 6c | 13,925$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…b1cfbacked Yes | 8c | 12,472$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…5743backed Yes | 6c | 11,707$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…3176backed Yes | 6c | 11,661$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…d83cbacked Yes | 7c | 11,447$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e58…91e2backed Yes | 6c | 11,314$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…aab8backed Yes | 5c | 10,900$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…fa83backed Yes | 7c | 10,789$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…4b2cbacked Yes | 7c | 10,419$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…b116backed Yes | 4c | 10,104$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…22a8backed Yes | 6c | 10,001$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…f9a4backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…6736backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes | 6c | 8,848$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 6c | 8,743$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.6 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…6014backed Yes | 6c | 8,455$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 5c | 7,871$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…560fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,600$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…088bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,379$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 5c | 7,299$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.38 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed Yes | 6c | 7,293$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…a641backed Yes | 7c | 7,233$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…4573backed Yes | 7c | 7,089$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 0c | 7,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…e0afbacked Yes | 4c | 6,998$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…6c96backed Yes | 5c | 6,684$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…34bfbacked Yes | 5c | 6,589$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…0837backed Yes | 6c | 6,350$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…7edcbacked Yes | 7c | 6,089$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…df22backed Yes | 7c | 5,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…0ed2backed Yes | 6c | 5,720$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…5e0dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,717$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…3badbacked Yes | 7c | 5,632$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…aa6fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,548$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 5c | 5,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54cb…e457backed Yes | 5c | 5,297$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…8b9abacked Yes | 5c | 5,057$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf966…d47ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,956$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…ed2fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,907$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…cc10backed Yes | 6c | 4,753$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 6c | 4,745$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…32fabacked Yes | 6c | 4,688$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…7528backed Yes | 5c | 4,374$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04e…05fabacked Yes | 5c | 4,321$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 4,296$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…faf4backed Yes | 5c | 4,228$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…2e79backed Yes | 5c | 4,198$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…9c8bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,953$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,953$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 3,684$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…3e6abacked Yes | 6c | 3,560$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…a9abbacked Yes | 6c | 3,508$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…06c6backed Yes | 6c | 3,503$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes | 5c | 3,447$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…b069backed Yes | 6c | 3,410$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…3150backed Yes | 7c | 3,353$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…eeafbacked Yes | 7c | 3,242$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…c176backed Yes | 6c | 3,202$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…c826backed Yes | 5c | 3,077$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed Yes | 5c | 3,061$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…b624backed Yes | 6c | 3,025$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…77eebacked Yes | 6c | 2,800$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 6c | 2,727$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…f549backed Yes | 6c | 2,491$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…671abacked Yes | 4c | 2,450$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…2039backed Yes | 7c | 2,431$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…0046backed Yes | 4c | 2,426$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2e…7d13backed Yes | 4c | 2,337$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…cb3dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.