Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f14301fcc2d5c5a17e9050ff94b2d324a3d45e83844bb05ac4f8435b30f395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 1,325$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.66 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 950.96$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 28c | 827.63$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 48c | 716.56$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.27 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 671.06$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.22 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…b3a2backed Under | 53c | 377.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 358.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 50c | 299.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.89 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 234.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…80c9backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…6ce1backed Over | 50c | 158$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350b…9ba4backed Over | 49c | 138.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 49c | 124.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 49c | 117$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 113.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 49c | 107$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 53c | 94.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Over | 49c | 90.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 31c | 83.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over | 48c | 51.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…d62dbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…c7adbacked Over | 53c | 48.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 33.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 132 | 58.3%77 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 49c | 30.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…5006backed Over | 50c | 27.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…0dbcbacked Under | 52c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21a…b071backed Under | 52c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Famalicão won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.