Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe382016737736934c22b09f84296ee400607345492b3b10ee893f46a21124bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,638$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.7 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 72c | 1,366$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.54 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…18f9backed Over | 35c | 1,095$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 760.69$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.11 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 46c | 652$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 74c | 517.57$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 60c | 502.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 373.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.41 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 260.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 28c | 235.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Under | 64c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 34c | 194.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 170.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 79c | 165.53$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 28c | 157.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 28c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 75c | 148.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 21c | 142.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Over | 33c | 122.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 23c | 108.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 106.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…d1cfbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 46c | 99.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 47c | 51.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 50.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…ff44backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Over | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 33c | 30.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…fccebacked Over | 42c | 24.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Over | 75c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Famalicão won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.