Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234c96c506807659df0842cdb5b7fe1f2606f67b5ef9372a48b0b223a0acbe1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof NAVI Junior, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2924…0f31backed BALU | 79c | 808.91$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked NAVI Junior | 24c | 700.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…790dbacked NAVI Junior | 55c | 583.8$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed BALU | 44c | 579.84$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…2aa9backed NAVI Junior | 55c | 483.58$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…9d33backed BALU | 44c | 480.28$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked BALU | 57c | 426.24$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed NAVI Junior | 43c | 269.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NAVI Junior | 48c | 218.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked BALU | 47c | 83.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed NAVI Junior | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed BALU | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group ANAVI Junior won
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerNAVI Junior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.