Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738f391a6f00e030e5cd936f9b25ca0237db8092bbc3aae213da216f6ebcf199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof NAVI Junior, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked NAVI Junior | 58c | 3,733$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.61 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked BALU | 43c | 2,098$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed BALU | 46c | 2,035$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.62 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 1,109$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.81 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked BALU | 43c | 599.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BALU | 43c | 539.05$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.79 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed BALU | 37c | 495.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7491backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 427.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.74 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…b422backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 415.32$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked BALU | 46c | 391.03$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.21 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked BALU | 45c | 367$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NAVI Junior | 67c | 295.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked BALU | 42c | 250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed BALU | 43c | 238.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed BALU | 28c | 214.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed BALU | 34c | 209.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed BALU | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked NAVI Junior | 14c | 197.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NAVI Junior | 65c | 196.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked BALU | 46c | 165.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…687fbacked NAVI Junior | 54c | 158.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed BALU | 72c | 153.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed BALU | 40c | 134.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed NAVI Junior | 67c | 115.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked NAVI Junior | 58c | 114.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NAVI Junior | 59c | 105.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed BALU | 32c | 104.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed NAVI Junior | 56c | 99.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked NAVI Junior | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed NAVI Junior | 55c | 87.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…a094backed BALU | 18c | 81.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…8237backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 73.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed BALU | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked BALU | 44c | 71.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed NAVI Junior | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed NAVI Junior | 37c | 65.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked BALU | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed BALU | 43c | 59.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked BALU | 57c | 57.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed BALU | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked BALU | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked BALU | 37c | 49.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked BALU | 48c | 47.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed BALU | 50c | 45.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…1139backed BALU | 28c | 45.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked BALU | 45c | 45.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed BALU | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked NAVI Junior | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 40c | 40.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed NAVI Junior | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed BALU | 45c | 38.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked BALU | 45c | 35.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked NAVI Junior | 56c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked BALU | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked BALU | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed BALU | 60c | 33.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5eb…f60fbacked BALU | 44c | 32.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed BALU | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked BALU | 65c | 31.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed BALU | 45c | 31.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed BALU | 36c | 31.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed BALU | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed BALU | 55c | 30.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…368dbacked BALU | 44c | 29.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked BALU | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…4a75backed BALU | 44c | 28.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked BALU | 68c | 25.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed BALU | 67c | 21.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed NAVI Junior | 56c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed NAVI Junior | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed BALU | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 1 WinnerBALU won
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 2 WinnerNAVI Junior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.