Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044edb9b356de15d24a21d77877c4faf26380c7af5351d0816c6a37bc9e1e713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof NAVI Junior, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed BALU | 70c | 1,351$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.62 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked BALU | 68c | 1,143$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.26 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NAVI Junior | 34c | 909.17$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.17 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed NAVI Junior | 31c | 681.97$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.95 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BALU | 78c | 610.02$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.82 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU | 55c | 495.35$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.44 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed NAVI Junior | 41c | 492.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed BALU | 62c | 370.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.06 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed NAVI Junior | 16c | 295.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.66 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked NAVI Junior | 58c | 252.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 50c | 244.75$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked NAVI Junior | 45c | 229.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed BALU | 8c | 224$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked NAVI Junior | 26c | 210.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed NAVI Junior | 39c | 187$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed NAVI Junior | 26c | 183.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NAVI Junior | 13c | 158.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed NAVI Junior | 12c | 145.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked NAVI Junior | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed NAVI Junior | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed BALU | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed BALU | 66c | 73.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed NAVI Junior | 48c | 63.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked BALU | 55c | 60.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked BALU | 45c | 50.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked BALU | 66c | 40.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed BALU | 54c | 35.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked BALU | 79c | 34.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked BALU | 65c | 26.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed BALU | 54c | 23.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed BALU | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group ANAVI Junior won
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs BALU - Game 1 WinnerBALU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.