Tennis · resolved market
Les Sables d'Olonne: Manon Leonard vs Raluca Serban
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236098d2177299b682d791ecb688aa97d55ce61427e104debc1bac89138a6755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leonardof Leonard, Serban
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Leonard | 76c | 4,224$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.15 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Serban | 34c | 3,522$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.63 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Serban | 19c | 2,586$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.51 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…f5f6backed Leonard | 67c | 1,556$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Leonard | 62c | 1,532$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.39 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Leonard | 67c | 1,432$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.33 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Serban | 38c | 984.66$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.36 | 444 | 48.9%217 W · 227 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Serban | 40c | 831$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…e478backed Leonard | 57c | 704.39$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Serban | 39c | 651.64$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Serban | 33c | 642.09$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Serban | 7c | 639$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Leonard | 77c | 390$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 200 | 39%78 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7189backed Leonard | 46c | 327.85$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Serban | 5c | 295.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Serban | 35c | 272.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Serban | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Serban | 49c | 225.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Leonard | 58c | 198.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…8e5fbacked Serban | 32c | 179.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Serban | 32c | 173.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Serban | 30c | 167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Leonard | 61c | 165.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Leonard | 58c | 161$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Leonard | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serban | 38c | 99.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Serban | 40c | 95.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Leonard | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 245 | 63.3%155 W · 90 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Leonard | 62c | 83.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Leonard | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Serban | 33c | 79.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Serban | 38c | 66.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…30e8backed Leonard | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…ffc4backed Serban | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Serban | 50c | 59.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…5b3abacked Leonard | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Serban | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Leonard | 64c | 49.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Serban | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Leonard | 50c | 46.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Serban | 37c | 37.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Leonard | 60c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Serban | 40c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Leonard | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…225bbacked Leonard | 63c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Leonard | 62c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Leonard | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Leonard | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…b8d0backed Leonard | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Leonard | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.