Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2381005e199ed9ca6478119b1482a92bd48c9aa55b2f7a8bea9c3a864789fee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 55c | 326.67$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.79 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 53c | 245.86$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 68c | 207.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 174.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 125.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 89.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 76.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 70.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed Yes | 65c | 59.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked No | 62c | 54.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 45.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 39c | 45.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 27c | 43.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 43.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 44c | 42.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 42.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 43c | 42.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…d04ebacked No | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 40.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 33.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 34c | 29.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 42c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 53c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 24.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 63c | 23.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 55c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.