Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb416c36855a841cd7b53e79cc1a3554fb9ba1882e9d8d50a5f5d79d8b41fb3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 50c | 520.28$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 291.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 224.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 157.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 49c | 146.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 121.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 108.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 104.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 53c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 83.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 76.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 36c | 71.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 59.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 22c | 57.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 46.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 62c | 44.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 42.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 41.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 67c | 38.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 63c | 35.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 35c | 35.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 30.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 52c | 30.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 64c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 28.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 27.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 25.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…2f95backed No | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…20bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 19.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.