Us Politics · resolved market
Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238c8873b011895d6f3e74897209f0c67f83a229acbc48eafe56f1857f6d6410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 15c | 628.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 18c | 609.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed No | 80c | 528$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 21c | 454.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…4574backed Yes | 9c | 183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…ad08backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 75c | 74.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.