Us Politics · resolved market
Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00afea85ad607fd8c82b6a32db5f60197e01a044ec6078a5251f18a09b4ad86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,475$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.14 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 65c | 2,327$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.8 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 74c | 1,609$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 77c | 734$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 58c | 400.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 31c | 271.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 30c | 118.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 78.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 62c | 74.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 55c | 41.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.