Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238e4427bdd10f8f1469f76f01734a4fe0ed78d0a7d41bcf6128a0316fb12b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 416.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 399.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 237.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 225.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 173.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 65c | 148.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 21c | 145.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 70c | 137.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 135.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 79c | 131.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 75c | 129.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 71c | 121.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 44c | 108.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 62c | 106.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 56c | 106.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 102.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 90.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 87.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 77.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 71c | 75.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 71.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 71c | 68.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 60.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…cb41backed Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 52c | 44.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 43c | 44.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 43.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 39.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 38.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 46c | 38.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 52c | 34.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 57c | 32.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 54c | 30.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 57c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 61c | 26.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…e677backed Yes | 59c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +298.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 53c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes | 71c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.