CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a111744cd597ee3b5220252501f9b14433f1055a9b9eb256215628aa8548eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof TNT, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ursa | 61c | 547.51$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.43 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Ursa | 71c | 324.21$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked TNT | 34c | 207.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed TNT | 19c | 195.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TNT | 41c | 60.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TNT | 40c | 40.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked TNT | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed TNT | 36c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked TNT | 36c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked TNT | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked TNT | 32c | 39.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed TNT | 28c | 38.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Ursa | 68c | 38.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed TNT | 39c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 PlayoffsTNT won
- Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerTNT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.