Tennis · resolved market
Thionville: Tom Paris vs Otto Virtanen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23df4ebabb292a2e5bd782c1a33fc532e9ccc946c69e4dd07e4a5daf7e38e705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Otto Virtanenof Tom Paris, Otto Virtanen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e9…390ebacked Tom Paris | 48c | 7,947$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,836.55 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Otto Virtanen | 58c | 6,153$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.59 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tom Paris | 36c | 5,364$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.8 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Tom Paris | 17c | 4,142$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Otto Virtanen | 58c | 3,073$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.58 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Tom Paris | 31c | 2,755$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.8 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tom Paris | 14c | 2,652$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.32 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Otto Virtanen | 60c | 2,471$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Otto Virtanen | 37c | 1,513$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.51 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tom Paris | 18c | 1,127$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Otto Virtanen | 51c | 1,081$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.18 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tom Paris | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Otto Virtanen | 80c | 684$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…572abacked Tom Paris | 79c | 627.7$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Otto Virtanen | 62c | 605.81$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tom Paris | 36c | 543.26$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.53 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tom Paris | 17c | 540.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Tom Paris | 17c | 435.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tom Paris | 36c | 408.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Otto Virtanen | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Otto Virtanen | 75c | 289.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Tom Paris | 18c | 245.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Otto Virtanen | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…ae69backed Tom Paris | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Tom Paris | 19c | 199.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Tom Paris | 12c | 188.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Tom Paris | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Otto Virtanen | 80c | 149$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Tom Paris | 42c | 139.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Tom Paris | 37c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Tom Paris | 18c | 128.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Otto Virtanen | 57c | 119.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Tom Paris | 19c | 114.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Tom Paris | 11c | 101.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Otto Virtanen | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…37f0backed Otto Virtanen | 73c | 96.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Tom Paris | 12c | 92.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Tom Paris | 18c | 90.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Tom Paris | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Tom Paris | 20c | 73.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Otto Virtanen | 33c | 70.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Otto Virtanen | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…fb49backed Tom Paris | 19c | 64.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Otto Virtanen | 51c | 59.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Otto Virtanen | 30c | 50.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Tom Paris | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Otto Virtanen | 57c | 49.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 175 | 52.6%92 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…9d94backed Tom Paris | 29c | 47.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6d…a962backed Otto Virtanen | 68c | 42.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Otto Virtanen | 69c | 40.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tom Paris | 44c | 37.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Tom Paris | 29c | 35.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Tom Paris | 79c | 34.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Tom Paris | 65c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Otto Virtanen | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…7e62backed Tom Paris | 35c | 28.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +291.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Otto Virtanen | 49c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…dbeebacked Otto Virtanen | 73c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…2d58backed Otto Virtanen | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Otto Virtanen | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.