MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24468f684d70dcc79bfcf940025cae207e78d83f235d0613173695ae0c0853a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Reds | 55c | 7,445$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360.69 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Rockies | 46c | 5,157$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.4 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rockies | 44c | 2,830$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.07 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 56c | 1,997$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.52 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 55c | 1,860$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rockies | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Reds | 55c | 900$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Reds | 74c | 834.04$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.18 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Rockies | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockies | 21c | 499.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rockies | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Reds | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Reds | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rockies | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rockies | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Reds | 55c | 221$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 71c | 214.22$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rockies | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Reds | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rockies | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Reds | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rockies | 43c | 66.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rockies | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Reds | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Reds | 55c | 43.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 59c | 42.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…5b45backed Reds | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Reds | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Reds | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.