Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24aa2aae4056a2330a72f780645eb17213cd48cbabb181c33128361bfe0c4ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Team Liquid, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Team Liquid | 33c | 6,797$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.98 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 3,164$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.18 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Liquid | 33c | 1,050$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 777.84$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.69 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid | 36c | 575.42$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…1e4cbacked Team Liquid | 13c | 569.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 520.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 433.54$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 391.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Team Liquid | 20c | 198.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…e80bbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 165.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 137.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 25c | 129.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 93.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Team Liquid | 21c | 72.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid | 25c | 59.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…ccbbbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…749dbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.