Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2539c02e0f8af79baa8e7bbbd81fc35bdfd6c3f404df26af14a947c13faae37a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 61c | 189.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 61c | 180.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…e01fbacked No | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 61c | 147.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 36c | 73.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Yes | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 62c | 37.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will Lazio vs. Verona end in a draw?No won
- Will Verona win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.