Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254df275ba00c66e2575d24e9ba3d7bb948b9cc1a7597b3ea69db58f00711f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 78c | 2,499$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.78 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 2,392$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.3 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 1,944$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.73 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,249$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.35 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 20c | 741.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 24c | 632.92$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 80c | 582.77$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 19c | 567.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 24c | 539.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 77c | 457.34$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 386.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 23c | 239.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 202.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 8c | 173$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 23c | 170.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 13c | 154.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 10c | 122.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 87.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 60.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 77c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 80c | 24.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.