Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c08e3f43b64b3b868d801c61cf2b34e4c21ba9670169640bab761522e50a0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd068…18f9backed No | 63c | 3,220$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 2,419$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.27 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 44c | 2,013$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 56c | 1,617$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.09 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 39c | 1,463$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.7 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 880.08$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.06 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 27c | 599.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 50c | 509.54$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.57 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 32c | 476.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 34c | 437.11$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 69c | 390.61$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 63c | 272.22$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 57c | 233.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…1c79backed Yes | 80c | 208.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 58c | 189.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 72c | 169.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 151.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…148ebacked Yes | 71c | 141.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 27c | 71.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 29c | 68.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 61c | 67.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 28c | 58.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?this page
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.