Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25562e2c611edf8f5cdd721def049f1c44b950c19882c1e3e891135d3c86cb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Over | 23c | 4,527$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 77c | 4,181$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 23c | 2,196$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 1,596$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.14 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 23c | 1,437$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 1,150$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 21c | 930.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 26c | 772.23$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 761.03$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 3c | 619.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 9c | 527.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 79c | 470$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 435.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 381$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 24c | 312$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 78c | 304.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Under | 79c | 301.89$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 245.7$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 9c | 171.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 78c | 154$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 101.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 77c | 99.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 78c | 81.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 60.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 75c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 22c | 49.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 78c | 48.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 77c | 44.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 40.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 78c | 31.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 76c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.