Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d036865458a80245319e5c552c45b250edfee49213f18179b33787e29fe0e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 41c | 65,343$26,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,890.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 59c | 61,352$36,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,301.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 3,157$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.29 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 3,104$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 2,681$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.93 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 18c | 1,281$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 1,248$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.07 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 1,098$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.46 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 76c | 1,083$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.69 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 76c | 1,076$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 825.12$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Over | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 42c | 704.21$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 45c | 594.7$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 43c | 540.09$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 59c | 496.92$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 68c | 496.47$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.82 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 42c | 469.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 385.35$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.79 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 57c | 377.25$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…6f39backed Under | 80c | 350.88$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 45c | 311.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 32c | 310.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 43c | 284.25$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 60c | 258$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 63c | 234.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 46c | 210.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 12c | 208$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Over | 35c | 207.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 36c | 196.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 17c | 193.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 14c | 182$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 34c | 174$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 16c | 172.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 112.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…e227backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 48c | 104.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 46c | 102.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 13c | 95.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 77c | 91.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 59c | 86.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Under | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 57c | 73.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Under | 63c | 63.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 37cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Under | 59c | 60.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 42c | 54.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 60c | 54.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 57c | 49.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…ff1cbacked Over | 48c | 47.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 25c | 45.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Under | 59c | 44.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Under | 55c | 42.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 58c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 57c | 29.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Under | 58c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 71c | 25.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 59c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 59c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c19…2881backed Over | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…e91cbacked Under | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 61c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…584cbacked Under | 57c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.