MLB · resolved market
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2574ba15aa4c986913e44d1274bdae3346741ed0aa5b1fcb2ea4452e8c1ba6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 44c | 1,200$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Under | 80c | 661.76$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.41 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 34c | 490.36$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 60c | 379$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 45c | 222.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…18efbacked Under | 46c | 219.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Over | 55c | 200.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 148.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3b30backed Under | 45c | 125.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…f218backed Under | 46c | 110.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…7d43backed Over | 56c | 106.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…3281backed Over | 57c | 101.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…5283backed Over | 57c | 96.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…981dbacked Over | 57c | 96.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 55c | 87.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…f2cebacked Over | 57c | 60.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…cedcbacked Over | 57c | 51.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…cf01backed Under | 46c | 42.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.1wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…0d55backed Over | 56c | 42.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Rangers vs. DiamondbacksRangers won
- Spread: Diamondbacks (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.